Getting inflation wrong

Mea Culpa. And learning some lessons.

I don’t think I have ever gotten any macroeconomic call as wrong as the current rate of British – and indeed global – inflation.

My base case last Autumn was that CPI would peak at perhaps 5% around now and then fall back by to perhaps 2.5-3% by the end of the year. By January, when it was clear that high energy prices were going to be an ongoing issue, …