How bad will it be?

The OBR and the BOE foresee very different recessions. The key difference is household savings.

Economic forecasters have caught up with the message that consumers have been signalling since Spring and now broadly agree that the UK is in recession.

(I will at this point allow myself to note that this was a likely to scenario for some of us quite a while ago).

But while there is little doubt that the contraction has already begun, the shape of the …