Whether it is transitory or not, high inflation could have a long term effect on macro-policy.

A few months ago, the macro-consensus seemed to be changing in a profound way. High inflation puts that at risk.

I’ve sat through enough macro-presentations and read enough macro-research to know that sounding confident and authoritative can carry one reasonably far. But on the biggest immediate debate in global macro I, for one, am feeling less confident than a few weeks ago. I still, on balance, expect the current spike in advanced economy inflation to prove tra…