Welcome to Value Added
What is Value Added?
Value Added is a newsletter on macroeconomics, finance, markets, public policy and political economy. With the odd dash of economic history stirred in. The name serves as a mission statement, with my intention being to only write on topics where I feel I have something to add. That means UK and European macroeconomics, global political economy and the global economic policy debate. Don’t expect deep dives into the latest US non-farm payroll print or Chinese real estate markets – other people can do that a lot better than me. But do expect clearly written and original analysis on British and European data releases, thoughts on the global policy debate and summaries of the latest macro research coming out of academia, central banks and think tank land.
Value Added is written to be read rather than to fill up your inboxes. The typical newsletter will be around the 800 word mark.
There are three ways to subscribe and support this publication.
You can sign up to receive a weekly newsletter, and occasionally some bonus material, for free. There is no earthly reason why you should not do this.
You can sign up as a paid subscriber which currently costs £10 a month (or £100 for an annual subscription). That will get you two newsletters a week, one longer and more in-depth newsletter a month and a monthly round-up of interesting links, further reading and useful research papers. You will also have the ability to comment on posts and join the discussion1.
Finally, you can sign up as a founding member. That will get you all the benefits of a paid subscription and also my eternal gratitude.
Why subscribe?
Readers can expect regular updates on the economic and policy outlook from a writer who has been following these topics for his entire career and has a reputation as both an astute analyst and a clear communicator.
The analysis will be framed around four core tenets which have guided my work:
Political economy matters - the macroeconomy is not something that happens in a sealed bubble. Over the medium term, the economic outlook is shaped by political choices and politics itself is shaped by the economy.
Mechanisms matter more than models - models are a helpful intellectual tool for thinking about economics but mechanisms matter more. Don’t assume that x causes y, ask by which mechanism does x impact y and then ask, is that mechanism working at the moment?
Balance sheets matter - too often macroeconomics focuses on flows and ignores stocks. Always look at the stock and flow if possible.
Path Dependency is important - the road taken to arrive at any point is sometimes as important as the destination. The past does not determine the future, but it does shape it.
About me
I’m an economist, journalist and author. I’ve covered the British economy for the Economist, the global economy for BBC Newsnight and been the economics columnist for Prospect magazine. I’ve also written for a range of other publications from the Financial Times to Political Quarterly. I began my career at the Bank of England, working on monetary and credit data at a time when no one really cared about monetary and credit data and after that worked in both asset management and public policy.
My first book, Two Hundred Years of Muddling Through, was published by Little, Brown in August 2021. You can buy it here.
The Financial Times said it was “the history that really matters”.
The Times called it, “impressively researched, succinctly written and highly readable”.
Adam Tooze was kind enough to say it was “pitch perfect, fast-moving, brilliantly well judged”.
My eldest child, aged eight and a half, reckons “it is quite dull and doesn’t have many good characters”. You can’t please everyone.
These rates will be in place until January 1st 2022, at which point the price will go up to £12 a month/£120 annual. If you subscribe before then you will stay on the original rate. Consider this an introductory offer/me preparing for the inflation that lots of people seem obsessed with.
Look forward to reading this Duncan.